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According to the latest big-sample poll by Morning Consult, Harris leads Trump by 4%. Of course, popular vote is not so important, including in 2016 when Trump lost to Hillary Clinton despite winning popular vote. The US government's fate has always been decided by swing states' people, while other states just watch. In recent polls, average data for swing states are as follows:
Michigan - Harris leads with 2.0%, election votes: 15
Wisconsin - Harris leads with 1.0%, election votes: 10
Arizona - Trump leads with 0.2%, election votes: 11
Pennsylvania - Trump leads with 0.2%, election votes: 19
Georgia - Trump leads with 1.0%, election votes: 16
North Carolina - Trump leads with 1.2%, election votes: 16
Nevada - Trump leads with 1.3%, election votes: 6
So far according to current data,
Harris got 225+15+10 = 250 votes,
Trump got 219+6+16+16+19+11 = 287 votes.
Note: This does not include the possibility of gaining an additional electoral vote from Nebraska due to its unique voting system. More details can be found on Google.
This result looks like Trump will win, but his lead margins have significantly decreased in the five swing states he led. If Harris wins any two of these five states, she would gain enough electoral votes.
Look at how close it was between Arizona and Pennsylvania - their difference is within a few percentage points. No one can say that Trump definitely won without evidence.
Now let's talk about this question.
How would things play out if Trump loses again in 2020, and what would happen if he loses to a woman of color?
Would Trump get even more enraged? Would there be a "third wave"? Can other countries take advantage?
Please note: I'm not predicting anything here. |
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